Hypothesis Engine
Live capture. Structured intelligence. Cross-lab pattern analysis.
Labs
2
Hypotheses
14
Experiments
6
Simulations
5
Assumptions
8
Avg Risk
3.1
Active Labs
View all → Pivot Lab #1 — Labor Constraints active
Multi-company · mixed
Q1 Strategy Lab — Apex Manufacturing active
Apex Manufacturing · Manufacturing
Recent Hypotheses
Mapping Wall → | Problem Statement | Constraint | Risk | Status | Created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLS data shows MI manufacturing hires at 3.5% vs separations at 3.3% — a near-zero net gain of 0.2%. At our 28% turnover, we are churning through workers 8x faster than the industry can replenish them. We've treated this as a 'talent shortage' when the data shows it's a retention failure we created. | workforce externality | | active | 2/13/2026 |
| BLS wage data shows MI manufacturing P25=$19.50, median=$26.40, P75=$35.80 — a $16.30 spread. We pay $22, clustered just above P25. For $5/hr more per worker (~$2.8M/year for 273 workers), we'd move from P22 to roughly P55. The question is whether the $2.8M buys more in retained productivity than it costs in payroll. | workforce externality | | draft | 2/13/2026 |
| FRED shows labor force participation at 62.5% nationally — meaning 37.5% of working-age adults are not in the labor force. Our unpredictable scheduling contributes to this: drivers who leave us often exit the workforce entirely rather than take another trucking job. We're not just losing drivers to competitors — we're pushing people out of the labor market. | workforce externality | | proposed | 2/13/2026 |
| FRED data shows interest rates at 4.33% while TN healthcare employment grew by 16,800 jobs — the strongest sector momentum in our cohort (6%). We're using the interest rate as justification to NOT expand, while the market is telling us demand is accelerating. The community externality: 40,000 residents without primary care access while we sit on capacity to serve them. | community | | active | 2/13/2026 |
| FRED reports real wage growth at 1.2% nationally, but our internal data shows a bifurcation: RN wages grew 4.2% (above $42/hr, 73rd pctl) while MA/tech/admin wages grew 0.3% ($16-22/hr). BLS TN healthcare P25=$22, meaning our lowest-paid workers sit at the floor of the market. The real wage growth statistic masks the externality — our growth accrues to the top while the bottom stagnates. | workforce externality | | draft | 2/13/2026 |
| Our wage structure contributes to the economic fragility of the Grand Rapids community. Employees earning below the benefits cliff spend less locally, reducing the multiplier effect that sustains the businesses around us. | community | | proposed | 2/13/2026 |
Recent Experiments
Ledger → Internal Care Access Program — Workforce Health Investment proposed
Caldwell Health Services
workforce externality 180d
Machinist Wage Increase — 12% Premium Test active
Reeves Manufacturing
labor 60d
Flex Scheduling Pilot — Southeast Region active
Hargrove Logistics
labor 90d
Phased Expansion Model — Lease-First Clinic proposed
Caldwell Health Services
capital 30d