Assumption Stress Tests
Epistemology for operators — rate certainty, identify what breaks, rank by fragility
Assumptions Tested
8
Avg Fragility
3.5
out of 10
Assumption Risk Index by Constraint
Which assumptions most frequently collapse under testing?
All Assumptions — Ranked by Fragility
| Belief | Certainty | Fragility | Constraint | Cost if Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory changes will increase compliance costs 30% by 2027 | 3/10 | 7.0 | regulation | Over-investment in compliance infrastructure: $1.5M |
| Our customers won't pay for this increase in cost. | 2/10 | 6.4 | — | Revenue loss |
| Our customers will not pay more than $45/unit for premium-grade components | 4/10 | 6.0 | market | $2.4M in unrealized annual revenue from underpricing |
| We cannot compete for engineering talent against tech companies | 7/10 | 2.4 | labor | 18-month product roadmap delay, $800K in contractor costs |
| Current interest rates make clinic expansion financially impossible. | 6/10 | 2.0 | capital | Missed 18-month window in expanding healthcare market. Competitor captures adjacent territory. |
| There aren't enough skilled machinists in the local labor pool. | 5/10 | 2.0 | labor | Underinvestment in recruitment. Missed opportunity to attract with wage premium. |
| We pay competitively for machinists in our region. | 7/10 | 1.2 | labor | Continued 90+ day vacancy rate. $45K per unfilled position in lost production. |
| Drivers primarily leave for higher pay elsewhere. | 8/10 | 0.6 | labor | Continued investment in pay raises without addressing root cause. ~$200K annually in misallocated retention spend. |