Mapping Wall

capital

Cannot expand to second clinic location due to financing costs.

active Risk 4 Rev 3

regulation

Our regulatory compliance costs are 3x industry average, eating into margins and slowing product launches by 4-6 months

testing Risk 3 Rev 2

labor

We cannot fill skilled machinist positions. Open roles stay unfilled for 90+ days.

testing Risk 3 Rev 8

Training investment is wasted — new hires leave within 6 months.

active Risk 4 Rev 6

Driver turnover is 35% annually despite paying above market.

active Risk 3 Rev 9

We are losing RNs to hospital systems that offer better benefits.

proposed Risk 3 Rev 7

We cannot hire skilled CNC operators fast enough — 12 open positions, 8-month avg time-to-fill

draft Risk 3 Rev 4

technology

Route inefficiency is increasing fuel costs by ~15% YoY.

proposed Risk 2 Rev 7

workforce externality

BLS data shows MI manufacturing hires at 3.5% vs separations at 3.3% — a near-zero net gain of 0.2%. At our 28% turnover, we are churning through workers 8x faster than the industry can replenish them. We've treated this as a 'talent shortage' when the data shows it's a retention failure we created.

critical 22th pctl $-4.40 72% tight

BLS MI manufacturing: hires 3.5%, separations 3.3%, net +0.2%. Company turnover 28% — 8x the state net hire rate. At 72% market tightness with wages at the 22nd percentile ($4.40 below $26.40 median), the company is extracting labor capacity faster than the regional market can replace it. This is a measurable externality: the company's retention failure becomes the community's workforce instability.

active Risk 4 Rev 7 MI

BLS wage data shows MI manufacturing P25=$19.50, median=$26.40, P75=$35.80 — a $16.30 spread. We pay $22, clustered just above P25. For $5/hr more per worker (~$2.8M/year for 273 workers), we'd move from P22 to roughly P55. The question is whether the $2.8M buys more in retained productivity than it costs in payroll.

elevated 22th pctl $-4.40 72% tight

BLS MI manufacturing wage distribution: P25=$19.50, median=$26.40, P75=$35.80. Company at $22 sits in the bottom quartile. The $4.40 gap to median × 273 workers × 2,080 hrs = $2.5M/yr. Current turnover at 28% × $45K/separation = $3.4M/yr in churn costs. The data suggests the externality (low wages) costs more to maintain than to internalize.

draft Risk 3 Rev 6 MI

FRED shows labor force participation at 62.5% nationally — meaning 37.5% of working-age adults are not in the labor force. Our unpredictable scheduling contributes to this: drivers who leave us often exit the workforce entirely rather than take another trucking job. We're not just losing drivers to competitors — we're pushing people out of the labor market.

elevated 72th pctl +$7.90 65% tight

FRED labor force participation: 62.5%. OH transportation sector flat (3% momentum). Company pays 72nd percentile ($7.90 above median) but has 35% turnover. The data creates a paradox: strong wages + high turnover = non-compensation externality. If departing drivers exit the labor force rather than switching employers, the company is contributing to the 37.5% non-participation rate — a macro-level externality driven by micro-level scheduling decisions.

proposed Risk 3 Rev 8 OH

FRED reports real wage growth at 1.2% nationally, but our internal data shows a bifurcation: RN wages grew 4.2% (above $42/hr, 73rd pctl) while MA/tech/admin wages grew 0.3% ($16-22/hr). BLS TN healthcare P25=$22, meaning our lowest-paid workers sit at the floor of the market. The real wage growth statistic masks the externality — our growth accrues to the top while the bottom stagnates.

moderate 73th pctl +$8.50 58% tight

FRED real wage growth: 1.2% nationally. BLS TN healthcare: P25=$22, median=$33.50, P75=$48. Company average $42/hr (73rd pctl) masks internal bifurcation. The aggregate metric hides the externality: RN wages track above median while support staff wages cluster at P25. Workers at the bottom of the distribution experience declining real wages — an externalized cost of the company's compensation structure that shows up as healthcare access inequity, turnover in support roles, and community economic drag.

draft Risk 3 Rev 7 TN

community

FRED data shows interest rates at 4.33% while TN healthcare employment grew by 16,800 jobs — the strongest sector momentum in our cohort (6%). We're using the interest rate as justification to NOT expand, while the market is telling us demand is accelerating. The community externality: 40,000 residents without primary care access while we sit on capacity to serve them.

moderate 73th pctl +$8.50 58% tight

FRED: interest rate 4.33%, TN healthcare employment +16,800, sector momentum 6%. The data reveals a tension: macro conditions (rate pressure 41%) argue for caution, but sector momentum argues for action. At 3.8% unemployment and strong labor participation, the patient base is stable and growing. The externality (40K underserved residents) compounds every month of delay — emergency department costs, preventable chronic disease progression, lost productivity in the community.

active Risk 3 Rev 5 TN

Our wage structure contributes to the economic fragility of the Grand Rapids community. Employees earning below the benefits cliff spend less locally, reducing the multiplier effect that sustains the businesses around us.