Artifacts
2
Patterns
2
hypothesis set
1
assumption map
1
Extracted Patterns
The externality costs more to maintain than to internalize

Across all three companies in Cohort Alpha, the total cost of maintaining the externality (turnover, lost productivity, community degradation, insurance costs) exceeds the cost of internalizing it (wage increases, scheduling changes, care access programs). This pattern — that externalities are not 'free' but are paid in hidden operational costs — is the foundational insight of the Pivot Lab model. Geographic and vertical-specific BLS/FRED data was essential to make this visible.

Freq: 3 75% confidence workforce externality
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Below-median wage positioning as primary driver of perceived labor shortage

Across manufacturing firms reporting 'labor shortages,' BLS data consistently shows wages below 40th percentile. The constraint is real but the root cause is compensation, not supply. Pattern frequency: 1 (will increase across cohorts).

Freq: 1 65% confidence labor
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All Artifacts
Lab #1 Hypothesis Set — Labor Constraints hypothesis set

Six hypotheses across three organizations. Primary constraint: labor (4 of 6). Secondary: capital (1), technology (1). Key finding: wage positioning is the dominant unexplored lever in manufacturing.

mixed labor v1
laborwagesretentionmanufacturinglogisticshealthcare
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Lab #1 Assumption Collapse Map assumption map

Four assumptions stress-tested. Highest fragility: 'Interest rates block expansion' (Caldwell, score: 2.0). Most impactful collapse: 'We pay competitively' (Reeves) — BLS data showed 28th percentile. This single data point reframed the entire workforce strategy.

mixed labor v1
assumptionsfragilitywage-dataBLS
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